Friday, December 30, 2011

EUR in 2012

Europe still has many problems to face in the coming months.  Here are the key dates for January 2012 :
• Wednesday, Jan. 4: Euro-zone December services purchasing-managers index. ECB 84-day and seven-day  dollar operations. 

• Thursday, Jan. 5: French bond auction. 

• Saturday, Jan. 7: Spanish government deadline for unions and business leaders to agree on labor-market overhauls. 

• Wednesday, Jan. 11, and Thursday, Jan. 12: European Commission visits Danish presidency in Copenhagen. ECB seven-day dollar operation. 

• Thursday, Jan. 12: ECB interest rate statement and press conference. Spanish and Italian bond auctions. 

• Friday, Jan. 13: Italian bond auction. 

• Monday, Jan. 16: Troika of international inspectors expected to return to Greece to resume talks on new bailout deal. 

• Tuesday, Jan. 17: Spanish T-bill auction. 

• Wednesday, Jan. 18: ECB seven-day dollar operation. 

• Thursday, Jan. 19: Spanish and French bond auction. 

• Friday, Jan. 20: Troika talks in Greece expected to end. 

• Monday, Jan. 23: Euro-zone January flash purchasing-managers index. Euro-zone finance ministers meeting. 

• Tuesday, Jan. 24: European Union finance ministers meeting. Spanish T-bill auction. 

• Wednesday, Jan. 25: Preliminary data on the Spanish government's annual budget deficit expected around this time. German January Ifo business climate index. ECB seven-day dollar operation. ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation. 

• Thursday, Jan. 26: Italian bond auction. 

• Friday, Jan. 27: Italian T-bill auction. 

• Monday, Jan. 30: EU leaders summit. Italian and Belgian bond auctions. 

• Tuesday, Jan. 31: Ireland's troika of lenders releases its latest quarterly review of the country's bailout. Greece aims to conclude talks detailing new €130 billion loan deal, debt-exchange program with private-sector creditors by this date. 

• Wednesday, Feb. 1: €25.8 billion of Italian BTP bonds due.

Personally I expect the EUR to test the lows of 2010 and if it breaks .... well it will probably hit parity with the USD.

If we look at the EUR against the JPY , it is already testing the multi-years low :

However one thing is for sure, volatility will be back with a vengeance :)

Have a very good year 2012

The Imperatore


farmland investment said...

Excellent post. I agree with the writer that the Euro will be close to touching parity with the dollar, if not reach that level. I believe one other daye to look at for the Euro is next Monday, Jan 9th, when Merkel/Sarkozy have another one of their endless meetings. I am certain not much will come out of that and Euro will drop again.

The Imperatore said...

Well I'm sure something will come out of that meeting ... another date for a future meeting.

That's all they seem to do, have a meeting to fix a date for the next meeting.

January will sure be volatile for the Euro.